Agenda item

City Plan Office Floorspace Data & Targets*

Report of the Planning Development Director.

Minutes:

The Committee received a report of the Planning and Development Director responding to a request from Members for information on office development trends and the office evidence base being developed to support the City Plan.

 

The report outlined the methodology used to arrive at the City Plan office floorspace target, recent employment projections for the City, office development trends and progress towards meeting City Plan targets. It also outlined the scope of consultancy work that is being commissioned to look at future office needs and demand, including the impacts of hybrid working and demand for lower graded office stock.

 

A Member questioned the scope of the consultation outlined within the report which failed to refer to City residents. She therefore asked that the scope be clarified and spoke on the impact of increased office floorspace in primarily residential parts of the City as well as the importance of including reference to the impact on residents in the behavioural aspects of the study. Officers responded to state that the study was largely intended to look at the need and demand for office floorspace and to respond to a number of questions posed by Members (through the Local Plans Sub-Committee in particular) as to the impact of the pandemic and changes in working patterns on this. The focus of this piece of work was therefore to try to establish what quantum of office floorspace is required in the City going forward to meet likely employment projections as well as to ensure that the City’s economy could continue to flourish and thereby support the regional and national economy. The scope set out within the report explained what outcomes Officers were hoping to achieve as opposed to how this would be done.  That being said, Officers undertook o discuss this further with the consultants to see if there were different patterns emerging across different parts of the City and thereby different requirements for office floorspace in different parts of the City. There would be an opportunity for Members to assess the results of the study and to discuss these with the consultants at the end of the process. Ultimately, the results would also feed into and steer the City Plan in terms of need and demand.

 

Another Member noted that GLA predictions indicated an increase in employment of 176,000 between 2016-2041 but noted that this time period had been extended by five years with previous projections indicating an increase of 116,000 but from 2016-2036. Secondly, she referred to the net gain set out within the report and asked Officers to clarify whether this was in relation to already completed buildings and live office space but not to those projects that had already been approved but not yet commenced or completed such as the large number of applications approved by this Committee in 2020-22. Thirdly, she questioned the pipeline and the typical percentage that Officers might foresee coming online in relation to what had been approved and how long it typically took for those projects to progress from approval to completion. She clarified that it would be useful to have these estimations in order to try and see roughly where that would place the City in terms of its target for 2036 as set out within the first draft of the new City Plan. Officers clarified that the projections set out here were for the period until 2041 whereas previously they were until 2036. The growth in employment was expected to be steeper during the 2020s before levelling off although the final figure was still expected to now be higher over the period than previously projected pre-Covid. Officers went on to state that paragraph 15 of the report set out the completed floorspace (a net gain of just under 700,000 square metres from 2016-2022) with paragraph 16 detailing floorspace in the pipeline and currently granted permission or currently under construction. It was reported that some of the applications granted by the Committee in 2021-22 had not yet worked its way through to permission as S106s were still being worked through for example and, as a result, these were not reflected within the figures presented. In terms of typical timescales from permission to completion, Officers assumed that this was generally a three year period for building to at least commence but recognised that larger developments could take much longer periods of time to complete. It was generally assumed that permissions granted to date would all reach completion by the end of the 2020s or sooner. The Member thanked Officers for this clarification and asked that the Local Plans Sub-Committee also receive further information as to this other tranche of office floorspace not yet factored into these figures.

 

The same Member questioned whether the consultant engaged here was the same consultant undertaking similar work on behalf of the applicant for London Wall West. She also stated that this was due to form part of the Climate Action Dashboard and asked Officers to ensure that this was part of the information that came before the Local Plans Sub-Committee to enable them to properly analyse and balance out these points. Officers responded to state that they were not aware that the consultants engaged here were also undertaking nay work in relation to London Wall West but undertook to follow up on this point. Secondly, Officers confirmed that a separate piece of work on embodied carbon and Whole Life Carbon was being undertaken alongside this office study for reporting into the Local Plans Sub-Committee.

 

The Chairman highlighted that the engagement of consultants for any piece of work followed a recognised and approved procurement process and was not a political decision.

 

A Member spoke to recognise that this piece of work could have a huge impact on things going forward and that the conclusions could be controversial. He added that Officers therefore needed to be very conscious, in presenting this data, of the use that could be made of it were it to be too leading in its conclusions. The Member therefore suggested that a spread of outcomes according to certain basic assumptions be presented in due course.  He urged particular caution when considering the working from home assumptions in the medium to longer term. Officers responded to state that they agreed in that any study for the planning system involved considering long time frames and that this study would involve looking up to 2051 in terms of employment statistics and translate this into what sort of square meterage of office space might be needed and what sort of demand there might be by that stage. It was therefore difficult to reach a level of specificity. Officers explained that, typically, planners opted for the upper mid and lower ranges depending on numerous variables. This study would build in a number of different options and assumptions based on different potential patterns of home working to come up with a scenario based range of results. The study would set out how conclusions had been reached and the assumptions that sat behind these.

 

Another Member stated that substantial surveys had now been undertaken with employers as to working from home patterns and underlined the importance of therefore basing this study on reality versus hope. The Member went on to refer to opportunities to repurpose older or inefficient office stock and questioned whether Officers hoped to simply identify stranded assets or to opine upon the ways in which those might be repurposed generally. Officers clarified that the consultant was not being asked to identify individual buildings but to provide a broader feel to the extent to which there were stranded assets in the City. Where stranded assets existed, Officers were looking to get a feel for whether it was viable to repurpose these for office or alternative use. In terms of alternative use, it would be for the Local Plans Sub-Committee to determine what the most appropriate alternative use would be.

 

A Member stated that it would clearly be useful for the Local Plans Sub-Committee to have as much information as possible. She went on to note that the report commented on the spread of development over the period identified and showed that 2026 showed a period of ‘levelling off’. She added that, with the permissions already granted, the figures at the beginning of 2023 were over 1.25 million square meters with a target of 1.5 million square meters up until 2026. She therefore questioned whether it would be appropriate for the Local Plans Sub-Committee to discuss these targets further and whether there should be a stretch target given that it would appear, from applications still in the pipeline, that this 2026 would be well exceeded way in advance of this date. Officers explained that the targets set out were not hard and fast targets but were intended to act as a guideline. They added that the targets were frontloaded because Officers were aware of what applications were coming forward over the next 5-10 years but not necessarily of much beyond this. They added that some of the permissions already granted may also still fail to come forward within the timeframe anticipated or indeed may not come forward at all. Officers went on to speak of the Eastern Cluster highlighting that, with the demolishment of a building there, the City’s figures would show a net loss on that site. Officers stated that, in due course, they would seek to present figures over a longer period of time to the Local Plans Sub-Committee which would demonstrate that, taking into account demolitions and other changes, targets were never actually met or exceeded.  

 

The Chairman noted that it was important to realise that these targets were also driven by market forces.

 

A Member questioned whether the Committee might have, on a bi-annual basis, data setting out which schemes were currently under construction, which schemes had been commenced but paused, which schemes had been consented by this Committee but not yet commenced and also details of the impact of any demolitions. It was felt that this would better demonstrate the fact that this was always a moving target. Officers highlighted that they already published a variety of monitoring reports on an annual basis setting out this type of information and were currently in the process of reviewing how they did so. They stated that figures could be shared with Members on a more regular basis going forward.  

 

RESOLVED – That Members note the report.

Supporting documents: